There are truths, there are lies, and there are statistics.”

The fate of 109 million Filipinos hangs, apparently, on nothing more than an econometric Lego set.

There is a model developed by the DOH, the Dept. of Science and Technology, Ateneo de Manila and UP called Feasibility Analysis of Syndrome Surveillance using Temporal  Epidemiological Modeler for Early Detection of Disease or  FASSSTER. The model is an “evidence based” predictor of COVID under varying assumptions. I understand it is the basis by which the Government decides whether to impose a quarantine, enhance it or modify it. Below is the April 20 iteration of FASSSTER. I am told it was part of an IATF presentation.

Column 1 is the control scenario, what will happen if there is no quarantine. The assumptions are the economy will operate at 100% capacity, all workers can work and everybody will be allowed to move at will. In this scenario:

• There will be 12.6 million infections
• Infections will peak on June 6, 2020 at 2.1 million
• 407,763 will have died.

Column 2 shows what will happen under the current ECQ. The assumptions are the ECQ will last till Nov. 5, 2020;  24% of the economy will operate, 23% of workers can return to work and 9% of the population can move around. In this scenario::

• There will be be 12.6 million infections
• Infections will peak on July 20, 2020 at 2.1 million
• 408,252 will have died.

Column 3 is the base case under a Modified Community Quarantine (MCQ). The assumptions are the MCQ will last 5 years, the economy will operate at 50% capacity, half of all workers can return to work and 25% of the population can move around. In this scenario:

• There will be 1.3 million infections
• Infections will peak on Jan. 5, 2021 at 25,600
• 65,000 will have died.

Column 6 is the best case for MCQ i.e. what will happen if MCQ works to perfection. The assumptions are the MCQ will end on August 28, 2020, the economy will operate at 71% capacity, 70% of workers can return to work, and 40% of people can move around. In this scenario:

• There will be 58,000 infections
• Infections will peak on May 10, 2020 at 14,400
• 2,823 people will have died.

The optimum model is that which generates the greatest employment, least social restrictions, and the lowest number of infections and deaths. Let us examine the different scenarios:

Model A (column 1) No Quarantine- This will allow the economy to operate at 100% with full employment and freedom of movement. However it will result in the second most number of deaths and infections.

Model B (Column 2) Current ECQ- This will allow the economy to operate at 24%, allow only 24% of workers to work and restrict social movement to 9% of the population It will have the highest number of deaths and infections.

Model C (Column 3) MCQ base scenario – This has the second best health and economic outcomes but will last 5 years.

Model D (Column 6) MCQ, best scenario- This has the best health and economic outcomes and shortest duration; but with the lowest probability of any of it happening.

Which is the best option? The answer is none of the above because FASSSTER is despite its awesome name; a dud. I ran the FASSSTER presentation past a few smart people and they confirm I am not hallucinating.

FASSSTER tells us Model B (our current ECQ) is in all respects – economic damage, social restrictions, number of infections, number of deaths – the worst of the lot. Its outcomes are worse even than a no quarantine scenario (Model A). It predicts infections will peak  on July 20, 2020 (no hour given) or 44 days after the peak in a No Quarantine scenario. It forecasts 408,252 deaths. And yet here we are 47 days into the ECQ.

That is not how such models are supposed to work. 

The public was initially allowed to access the  FASSSTER algorithm but has since been denied. One understands why. The emperor, it appears, has no clothes.

I present FASSSTER not to marvel at its absurdity – well that too – but for what it says about the quality of our decision making. If it is the standard by which the IATF  makes existential judgements that throw millions out of work, destroy businesses and forever indebt our children; then we as nation are in trouble. In what other ways, one wonders, are we screwed?

On March 15 we were in a crisis of unknown dimensions. Somebody had to make a difficult call and our President boldly and rightly decided to shut down the country. He assigned the IATF to implement the plan. The IATF was given the power to play God.

Now if one gets to play God, one better act like God with his humility, compassion, ability and wisdom. We have seen very little of these. The IATF has throughout the crisis been behind the curve. It resisted the travel ban and rapid testing, is nowhere in contact tracing, was late in protecting our healthcare workers, has thrown roadblocks across the country. The IATF recommended a ban on seniors and youngsters that drew such derision it was immediately rescinded albeit kicking and screaming. The private sector is undertaking massive testing on its own to build national COVID models but the DOH is reportedly refusing to share its data in this effort.

The Senate has called for the resignation of the IATF Co-Chair. Privately senior Cabinet Secretaries roll their eyes at the mention of his name. The private sector despairs.

The President is uncomplicated. He asks only three questions: Do people have food, are people dying, is there money in the bank? If the answer is Yes to all three then the quarantine in some form continues. If the answer is NO to two of the three, well, we will  just have to figure it out. Right now the answer is Yes to all but could quickly become No tomorrow.  And that is when the shit hits the fan.

What will change the President’s mind?

The business sector has thrown every economic number at the President – the impact to GDP, the budget deficits, the value of an economic life – but the man’s eyes just glaze over. The President is focused on the “science” as proffered by the IATF “experts” and unless somebody gives him an alternative medical scenario that deaths are within norms and the healthcare system will not be overwhelmed; he will be unmoved.

In the meantime FASSSTER tells us the quarantine in some fashion will end anywhere between August 20, 2020 and May 1, 2025.

Posted with permission from Heneral Lunacy.